Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.008917 0.010064 0.011304 0.012745 0.014373 0.016157 0.018262
2025-12-21 0.006844 0.008362 0.010139 0.012375 0.015116 0.018371 0.022537
2025-12-28 0.006014 0.007762 0.009923 0.012795 0.016522 0.021202 0.027543
2026-01-04 0.005364 0.007239 0.009663 0.013035 0.017615 0.023638 0.032193
2026-01-11 0.004890 0.006860 0.009508 0.013337 0.018752 0.026165 0.037134
2026-01-18 0.004382 0.006361 0.009115 0.013241 0.019287 0.027865 0.041032
2026-01-25 0.003986 0.005971 0.008821 0.013227 0.019902 0.029686 0.045220
2026-02-01 0.003597 0.005546 0.008426 0.013012 0.020172 0.030991 0.048711
2026-02-08 0.003337 0.005286 0.008246 0.013091 0.020873 0.032974 0.053384
2026-02-15 0.003067 0.004983 0.007968 0.012983 0.021257 0.034471 0.057386
2026-02-22 0.002912 0.004847 0.007937 0.013258 0.022266 0.037028 0.063318
2026-03-01 0.002640 0.004494 0.007522 0.012861 0.022117 0.037655 0.066026
2026-03-08 0.002428 0.004229 0.007238 0.012667 0.022311 0.038897 0.069954
2026-03-15 0.002209 0.003932 0.006876 0.012308 0.022184 0.039573 0.072936
2026-03-22 0.002140 0.003892 0.006952 0.012726 0.023470 0.042833 0.080895
2026-03-29 0.002048 0.003803 0.006931 0.012964 0.024440 0.045592 0.088147
2026-04-05 0.001972 0.003736 0.006946 0.013264 0.025547 0.048682 0.096292
2026-04-12 0.001848 0.003569 0.006761 0.013168 0.025883 0.050332 0.101743
2026-04-19 0.001746 0.003434 0.006625 0.013155 0.026375 0.052312 0.108015
2026-04-26 0.001628 0.003259 0.006398 0.012942 0.026446 0.053461 0.112668
2026-05-03 0.001552 0.003164 0.006319 0.013019 0.027112 0.055851 0.120118
2026-05-10 0.001463 0.003032 0.006158 0.012913 0.027383 0.057448 0.125997
2026-05-17 0.001419 0.002992 0.006178 0.013186 0.028477 0.060843 0.136092